Cyber Risk Financial Impact Analysis

FAIR + Monte Carlo, calibrated to your business

We use FAIR (Factor Analysis of Information Risk) - the open standard adopted by the Open Group and referenced in NIST IR 8286 - to decompose each scenario into loss event frequency and loss magnitude. Monte Carlo simulation then samples across those distributions tens of thousands of times to produce a probable range, not a single guess.

Every input is calibrated: contact frequency and threat capability from industry data (Verizon DBIR, IBM Cost of a Breach, Advisen, Coveware), control strength from your assessments and pentest results, and loss magnitude from your own revenue per hour, data volumes, regulatory exposure, and vendor contracts.

• FAIR loss event frequency x loss magnitude decomposition
• 10,000+ iteration Monte Carlo per scenario
• Verizon DBIR / IBM / Advisen / Coveware calibration
• Loss exceedance curves (90th / 95th / 99th percentile)
• Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) in dollars
• Sensitivity analysis on top loss drivers

The loss scenarios that actually move the number

Most organizations get 80% of their quantified cyber risk from a handful of scenarios: enterprise ransomware with extortion and downtime, business email compromise with wire fraud, regulated-data breach with notification and fines, third-party / supply-chain compromise, and prolonged cloud or SaaS outage.

We model each with its own frequency, magnitude, and control dependencies - so you can see exactly which investments (MDR, immutable backups, PAM, email security, TPRM) reduce which dollars.

• Ransomware + double-extortion
• Business email compromise + wire fraud
• Regulated-data breach (HIPAA / PCI / GDPR / state)
• Third-party / supply-chain compromise
• Insider data exfiltration
• Cloud / SaaS extended outage

Model the breach, phase by phase

A breach isn't a single line item. It unfolds in four cost phases - detection & escalation, notification, post-breach response, and lost business - and each one is driven by different variables. Modeling them separately shows leadership exactly where a control investment shortens the timeline and shrinks the number.

For every scenario we itemize the phases so you can see, for example, how much shaving 12 hours off detection is worth in dollars, or how immutable backups collapse the lost-business phase.

• Detection & escalation - forensic hours, IR retainers, internal effort
• Notification - regulated records, letters, credit monitoring, call center
• Post-breach response - legal, PR, remediation, regulator engagement
• Lost business - downtime revenue, productivity, churn, brand impact

Price every hour of downtime by industry

Hourly downtime cost varies wildly by industry - a manufacturing line, a trading desk, a hospital EHR, and a SaaS control plane all lose money at very different rates. We combine your revenue per working hour, your employee productivity cost, and industry-specific customer-churn sensitivity to produce a defensible per-hour number.

That single number is the one every executive remembers. It anchors the RTO conversation, sizes the DR budget, and defends the cyber insurance retention.

Optimistic, likely, and worst case

A single-point estimate is easy to argue with. A range isn't. Every scenario is presented as an optimistic / most-likely / worst-case band with the underlying distributions, so leadership can decide what percentile they want to plan and insure to - not what percentile a spreadsheet happened to spit out.

The output every stakeholder actually asks for

For the board: a one-page loss exceedance curve, top loss drivers, and a control-investment ranking in dollars. For the CFO: annualized loss expectancy, downtime cost per hour, and the ROI of each proposed security investment. For the cyber insurance underwriter: quantified inherent and residual risk, control maturity evidence, and a defensible view of the limits and retention you actually need.

You leave with a reusable model in your tenant - not a static PDF - so you can rerun the analysis after an acquisition, a new product launch, a control change, or a policy renewal.